WLA and UNIL Build Standard Tool to Measure Illegal Gambling Markets

The World Lottery Association and the University of Lausanne’s School of Criminal Justice on May 12 presented a preliminary framework in Lausanne. The tool is designed to estimate the size of illegal online gambling markets, and the WLA says it could give regulators the evidentiary foundation they currently lack to act against unlicensed operators.

The joint project, launched in 2024, is designed to produce annual, country-level estimates through a standardized methodology. The methodology allows cross-jurisdictional comparisons over time.

Why Existing Estimates Fall Short

Until now, estimates of illegal gambling market size have varied widely, been difficult to verify, and carried limited weight in policy discussions. Professor Stefano Caneppele, who led the project at UNIL’s School of Criminology, said the goal was to build a methodology that is rigorous, transparent, and reproducible across jurisdictions and over time, with results that genuinely hold up to scrutiny.

The framework is built around channelization rates: the share of total gambling activity captured by the licensed market. The model uses that figure to produce a structured estimate of what the legal market does not capture.

Tested Across Six Markets

The team validated the methodology across six pilot jurisdictions: the UK, Quebec, Chile, Singapore, Morocco, and Germany. The German case produced a notably wide uncertainty range, which the team interpreted not as a model failure but as an accurate reflection of a market in structural transition with a volatile data environment.

Caneppele stressed that uncertainty is itself meaningful data, and that the decision to publish wide ranges rather than force a single figure is what gives the methodology credibility.

Robert Chvátal, Chair of the WLA’s Combating Illegal Lotteries and Betting Committee (CILBC), said the framework is designed to “give governments and regulators the solid evidence they need to act with confidence” against unauthorized operators.

The workshop drew representatives from Interpol, the Council of Europe, H2 Gambling Capital, and regional associations across Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America, as well as operators such as Allwyn, Singapore Pools, The Hong Kong Jockey Club, and West Lotto.

The CILBC has also developed a broader toolkit alongside the framework: payment risk assessment templates, enforcement letter templates, and standardized definitions to help member lotteries translate analysis into action.

TGJ Take

For licensed operators, the value of this framework is not academic. It is competitive. Illegal operators have long benefited from the absence of credible market sizing: no solid numbers makes it harder for regulators to justify enforcement budgets or blocking orders. A reproducible, cross-jurisdictional methodology changes that calculus. The Germany result is worth close attention. Regulators in transitional markets that opt for wide uncertainty ranges over convenient single figures signal the tool is being used honestly, and that enforcement decisions, not just policy papers, may follow.