Kalshi Undercut Sportsbook Odds Across March Madness, Citizens Report Finds

Analyst Jordan Bender at Citizens Capital Markets and Advisory measured the average vig for every NCAA tournament game. Kalshi came in at 4.13%, against 4.35% for DraftKings, 4.45% for FanDuel, and 4.48% for Fanatics. Citizens calculated Kalshi retained about 7% less revenue per wager than its competitors.

Kalshi’s vig varied by round. The First Four vig hit 4.9%, above the sportsbook average of 4.76%. It then fell to 3.8% in the first round and 4.1% in the finals. More wagers in a round produced better odds for bettors, according to the report.

During the NFL season, Kalshi’s vig in Week 1 ran about 15% above sportsbooks. By the final six weeks, Citizens measured that difference at 7%. March Madness closed it to zero.

TGJ Take

In her New Jersey dissent, Judge Jane R. Roth noted that Kalshi markets its product as legal sports betting in all 50 states. Every price comparison Kalshi puts out against sportsbooks adds to that record. Courts in the active cases against Kalshi will use that marketing as evidence it operates as a gambling company.