UK Black Market Gambling Nears 20% Share by 2028

H2 Gambling Capital expects illegal gambling stakes in the UK to rise from £17bn in 2025 to more than £33bn by 2028, with black market operators potentially taking 19.2% of all online betting and gaming stakes. The forecast comes as the Gambling Commission reviews financial risk assessment proposals, with operators warning that tougher affordability checks could push more customers toward offshore sites.

The Betting and Gaming Council said the figures show how quickly the black market is growing in the UK. Unlike licensed operators, illegal sites pay no UK tax and do not follow British safer gambling rules or consumer protection standards.

The debate over financial risk assessments has become one of the biggest regulatory issues facing the sector. The Gambling Commission says the checks would target higher-spending customers and rely mainly on existing financial data. Operators are still concerned that extra verification steps or requests for financial documents could frustrate users and increase customer drop-off.

Grainne Hurst, CEO of the Betting and Gaming Council, said customers will not stop betting if regulated sites become harder to use. She said more users could move to offshore operators that do not follow UK rules. The regulated betting sector supports around 109,000 jobs, contributes £6.8bn to the economy, and generates about £4bn in tax revenue each year.

The forecasts could also create new problems for affiliates and acquisition partners. Regulators are already increasing scrutiny around advertising and traffic sources linked to unlicensed gambling brands. Operators with slower onboarding or stricter checks may find it harder to keep customers once the new rules take effect.

TGJ Take

The warning sign here is the projected 19.2% market share for illegal operators by 2028. That is no longer a small leakage problem for the regulated sector. Operators can probably handle tighter rules if checks stay fast and mostly invisible to customers. If the process turns into manual reviews, bank statement requests, or long account delays, offshore sites will benefit immediately. Affiliates should expect more pressure from regulators as black market traffic grows, especially around UK-facing campaigns and partner checks.