DraftKings Shares Face Pressure Amid Rising Kalshi and Polymarket Users
BNP Paribas started covering DraftKings Inc. with a sell-equivalent rating, pointing to the fast growth of regulated sports prediction markets as a threat to its U.S. sportsbook. Analyst Charlie Muir-Sands said over half of Kalshi and Polymarket users also bet on DraftKings, showing a strong overlap in customers. The report added that higher taxes or margin pressures could put further strain on earnings.
The launch of DraftKings’ prediction-market app in December 2025 has done little to ease pressure from Kalshi and Polymarket. BNP Paribas warned that the rapid growth of these platforms could slow sportsbook user acquisition and constrain margin expansion, highlighting a strategic risk for operators and affiliates.
Shares of DraftKings have seen significant volatility this year, falling 27% year-to-date and 65% below their March 2021 peak. BNP Paribas’ $20 price target suggests around 20% downside from recent closes, highlighting how competition from prediction markets could pressure revenue and margins.
The overlap between users raises risks for affiliates and marketing partners. Campaigns targeting U.S. bettors may see reduced effectiveness as prediction-market adoption grows. Affiliates promoting DraftKings alongside Kalshi or Polymarket may need to review traffic allocation and diversify portfolios to reduce exposure.
TGJ Take
Kalshi and Polymarket are taking active bettors away from DraftKings’ sportsbook. Operators should expect slower user growth and tighter margins if this trend continues. Affiliates relying on DraftKings traffic need to check their portfolios and diversify to avoid losing audience share. DraftKings’ own prediction-market app only partly offsets the threat, leaving the company exposed to changing user behaviour. Investors and partners should watch prediction-market growth closely for its impact on revenue.
